Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53ba…a768 other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 223L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$43
sports 24% −$24
politics 8% −$6
culture 6% −$9
economics 5% −$3
crypto 4% +$17
world 3% −$3
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 59 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 167 -0.0% -9.5% 5% 1% -9.6%
all 234 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage133d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $461 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $638 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $635 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $472 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $837 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $259 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $797 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $497 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $771 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $539 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $988 −$2 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $266 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $515 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $169 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $203 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $407 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $287 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $548 −$2 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 05 $625 −$2 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $419 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $453 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $328 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $76 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $76 8h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $77 9h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $77 11h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $77 13h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $77 15h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $77 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $77 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $77 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $77 21h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $77 22h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $77 27h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $77 29h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 32h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $18 33h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $78 34h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $78 36h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $78 38h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $78 39h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 40h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $78 42h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $78 43h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $78 45h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $78 47h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $78 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $78 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $78 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $78 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $78 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $78 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.37 · official $76.37 (match) · 1325 history records