Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53b7…45e5
sports · 125 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,144 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$251 · open −$2,894
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$6
Realized−$251
Unrealized−$2,894
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses61 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)123 / 125
History coverage80d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 2 History 123 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$296
7 days−$38
14 days+$227
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 26¢ $2,899 $6 −$2,893 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 87¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 92¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bucharest Open: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan Stefanos Sakellaridis 22¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 26? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 75¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Down 93¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,861 −$738 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,129 +$441 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3,200 +$262 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 01 $198 −$171 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 01 $235 −$36 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 2? Jun 01 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $197 +$38 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 2? Jun 01 $0 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $61 −$23 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,691 +$669 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $11 +$51 +450%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 30 $37 −$26 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 30? May 30 $14 +$23 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30? May 30 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $429 −$228 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma May 27 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $40 −$37 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $2 −$1 -34%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari May 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $10 −$10 -95%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 25 $13 +$16 +124%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $17 +$4 +22%
Bucharest Open: Stefanos Sakellaridis vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 03 $11 −$5 -49%
Bucharest Open: Sebastian Baez vs Titouan Droguet Apr 03 $11 $0 +4%
Copa Colsanitas: Guiomar Maristany vs Emiliana Arango Apr 02 $5 $0 +8%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Apr 02 $4 $0 +8%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machac Apr 02 $2 +$2 +86%
Pacers vs. Hornets Apr 02 $1 $0 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 02 $1 $0 +32%
Menorca: Yaroslav Demin vs Jonas Forejtek Apr 02 $72 −$72 -100%
Miyazaki: Yi Zhou vs Ognjen Milic Apr 02 $367 −$229 -62%
Spurs vs. Warriors Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% −$3,292
world 29% +$705
sports 29% −$320
weather 3% −$148
finance 1% −$58
crypto 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $207 7m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $177 59m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $706 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $140 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $140 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $34 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $286 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $29 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $428 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $349 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $394 7h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -27.7% -34.6% 50% 25% -10.0%
≤30d 39 -13.3% -21.6% 46% 26% -8.2%
≤90d 123 -20.8% -28.3% 50% 18% -10.7%
all 123 -20.8% -28.3% 50% 18% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 18% -10.7%
10% -35.2% 10% -19.3%
15% -41.4% 6% -27.1%
20% -47.2% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.12 · official $6.12 (match) · 442 history records