Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x53b2…e8b7 world 36 markets active 1d ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$2
other 12% $0
politics 10% $0
sports 9% +$2
culture 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 57% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 57% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 57% 0% -8.8%
all 36 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage472d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $68 +$2 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 18? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $18 $0 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? May 08 $7 $0 -5%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 08 $7 $0 -6%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 05 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $3 $0 -12%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $18 $0 +1%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 22 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Mar 20 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 37h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $6 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $29 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $35 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $24 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $10 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $25 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $8 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $37 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $34 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $31 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $3 7d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $4 180d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 92¢ $13 355d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $2 378d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 95¢ $13 392d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 392d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $14 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 110 history records