Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53b1…8e43 sports 176 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$281 (-4%) realized −$247 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%82W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$177
14 days+$209
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$66
crypto 16% −$222
other 5% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.1% +6.8% 60% 47% +18.5%
≤30d 55 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 44% -4.6%
≤90d 173 -18.3% -26.1% 47% 35% -13.8%
all 173 -18.3% -26.1% 47% 35% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 35% -13.8%
10% -33.2% 27% -22.1%
15% -39.6% 21% -29.6%
20% -45.5% 18% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses82 / 91
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 176
History coverage54d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST - Map 1 Winner IGZIST 33¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 +$12 +59%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Ognjen Milic Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Wil Jun 23 $31 +$110 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $39 +$18 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 +$28 +109%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$40 +79%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $56 +$3 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$30 -59%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $59 +$23 +39%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $85 −$26 -31%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $30 +$18 +60%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 +$22 +114%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Will A Jun 17 $36 +$34 +96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $44 +$6 +15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$36 -91%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $21 +$35 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $90 −$18 -20%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $51 −$49 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $135 +$28 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $82 +$28 +34%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 06 $57 +$25 +44%
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $26 +$31 +119%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $79 −$78 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-10.5) Jun 03 $30 −$30 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5 Jun 03 $36 −$35 -98%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $66 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $32 +$14 +43%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Harriet Dart Jun 02 $115 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $34 −$33 -98%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $41 −$40 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 Winner Jun 01 $70 +$59 +84%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba (BO3) - Exort Series Main Stage Jun 01 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group S May 31 $56 +$10 +18%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG - Map 2 Winner May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner SELL AM Gaming 46¢ $32 15m
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner BUY AM Gaming 28¢ $20 52m
Valorant: Fennel vs IGZIST - Map 1 Winner BUY IGZIST 33¢ $35 1h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Ognjen Milic BUY Eero Vasa 11¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 21¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $25 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 3d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 94¢ $101 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $91 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 93¢ $56 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $39 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $21 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 5d
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY SaD Esports 24¢ $8 5d
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY SaD Esports 36¢ $4 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL South Africa 97¢ $81 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 69¢ $59 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 46¢ $59 5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $85 5d
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 2 Winner BUY Chivas Esports $3 6d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Division One 75¢ $6 6d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Division One 77¢ $42 6d
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 47¢ $30 6d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Portugal win on 2026 BUY 41¢ $21 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 430 history records