Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53af…671c politics 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$173 (-0%) realized −$163 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate57%81W / 62L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,289per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$127
other 10% −$100
weather 8% +$13
sports 6% −$20
world 1% −$15
finance 0% −$29
culture 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 47% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 17 +0.1% -9.4% 47% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 19 -5.7% -14.7% 42% 0% -9.9%
all 143 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 6% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$1,593
Realized−$163
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses81 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)143 / 150
History coverage626d
Avg bet$1,289
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $912 $911 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 91¢ 88¢ $290 $282 −$8 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C or higher on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes 91¢ 7¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $5,849 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 20? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C or below on June 2 Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,715 −$3 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,965 −$1 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $428 −$10 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $90 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $8,983 −$37 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 19 $584 −$11 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $371 −$13 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $406 −$11 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Jun 19 $65 +$2 +4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,626 −$10 -0%
Will Emma rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025 Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 28 Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on April 28? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on April 28? Apr 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50? Apr 28 $8 −$1 -11%
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? Mar 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in March? Mar 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? Mar 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) Mar 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Mar 18 $17 $0 -1%
Valorant: JD Gaming vs Rare Atom (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act 1 Mar 18 $6 +$1 +18%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 18 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 40°C on March 17? Mar 18 $12,250 +$12 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 17 $6 +$1 +22%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - CCT Playoffs Mar 17 $6 +$2 +28%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $11,916 $0 +0%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $3,926 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $3,174 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $11,382 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $2,989 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on March 14 Mar 15 $240 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 58°F or higher on Mar Mar 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on March 14? Mar 15 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 65°F or below on March 14? Mar 15 $300 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or higher on Marc Mar 15 $356 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $14,650 −$12 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 14 $3,369 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $3,112 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $3,472 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs FOKUS REALITY (BO3) - United21 Group D Mar 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Middlesbrough FC vs. Bristol City FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 13 $5,456 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5,847 44m
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5,849 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $163 2h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $1,600 2h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $9 3h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $103 5h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,964 7h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $409 15h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $65 39h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $62 41h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $14 42h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $29 44h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $59 46h
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $49 46h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $418 47h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C or below on June 2 BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $90 2d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,484 2d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,965 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $1,715 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $428 2d
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $161 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $26 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,593.41 · official $1,593.41 (match) · 640 history records