Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
53 0x53ae…798a other 30 markets active 4h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$77 (+9%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$32
14 days+$74
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2
sports 22% +$121
world 9% −$77
crypto 6% +$33
politics 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -29.3% -36.0% 41% 41% -5.4%
≤30d 29 -30.1% -36.7% 38% 38% -2.4%
≤90d 29 -30.1% -36.7% 38% 38% -2.4%
all 30 -32.4% -38.9% 37% 37% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 37% -3.0%
10% -44.7% 33% -12.3%
15% -50.0% 33% -20.8%
20% -54.9% 27% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$15 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage230d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $181 +$80 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $83 +$42 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 +$34 +68%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $75 +$84 +113%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +223%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $93 +$50 +54%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $261 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $181 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $16 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $83 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $61 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 5d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $75 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $77 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $143 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $93 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 8d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records