Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53ae…f71e sports 207 markets active 9h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (152 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,731 (-17%) realized −$2,731 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%143W / 411L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day152.1pace
Fees−$212est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,594
other 6% −$900
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (152 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 379 +31.2% +18.7% 22% 19% -54.7%
≤30d 554 +23.7% +11.9% 26% 20% -39.6%
≤90d 554 +23.7% +11.9% 26% 20% -39.6%
all 554 +23.7% +11.9% 26% 20% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover152.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.9% 20% -39.6%
10% ← realistic here +1.2% 18% -45.4%
15% -8.6% 17% -50.7%
20% -17.5% 16% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
15.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$2,731
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses143 / 411
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions0
Markets (closed)554 / 207
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$79
Trades / day152.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 554 Trades
no open positions (457 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Mauthausen: Lukas Neumayer vs Laslo Djere Jun 17 $17 −$13 -79%
Ostrava: Rudolf Molleker vs Henri Squire Jun 17 $6 +$13 +211%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Mert Alkaya Jun 17 $8 −$7 -90%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $34 −$19 -54%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 17 $7 +$22 +324%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Z7 Esports (BO1) - Parken Challenger Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Wuning 2: Alexandr Binda vs Charles Broom Jun 17 $8 +$32 +412%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 217.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Ostrava: Zsombor Piros vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 17 $2 +$2 +76%
Madrid Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Savannah: Kilian Feldbausch vs Clement Tabur Jun 17 $35 −$50 -141%
Aix en Provence: Kimmer Coppejans vs Valentin Royer Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
ITF Litija: Kirill Kivattsev vs Gabriele Bosio Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Madrid Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Ethan Quinn Jun 17 $32 −$26 -79%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: McCartney Kessler vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 17 $24 −$26 -106%
Savannah: Nick Hardt vs Jack Kennedy Jun 17 $3 +$45 +1514%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs M Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Ostrava: Marco Cecchinato vs Garrett Johns Jun 17 $9 −$3 -31%
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 17 $7 −$15 -200%
Ostrava: Raul Brancaccio vs Toby Samuel Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Shymkent 2: Amir Omarkhanov vs Denis Yevseyev Jun 17 $7 +$3 +42%
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 17 $48 −$56 -118%
Jiujiang: Keegan Smith vs Alex Bolt Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Madrid Open: Xinyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 17 $37 −$49 -135%
Jiujiang: Alex Bolt vs Adam Walton Jun 17 $5 +$42 +874%
Oeiras 3: Greet Minnen vs Petra Marcinko Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Oeiras 3: Valentin Royer vs Joel Schwaerzler Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Oeiras 3: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Francisca Jorge Jun 17 $11 −$15 -139%
Shymkent 2: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Santa Cruz: Facundo Mena vs Valerio Aboian Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Barcelona Open: Reilly Opelka vs Ethan Quinn Jun 17 $4 +$41 +1130%
Saint-Malo: Tereza Valentova vs Anna Blinkova Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Jiujiang: Fajing Sun vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh Jun 17 $10 −$9 -90%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Caty McNally Jun 17 $5 +$40 +746%
Jiujiang: Sho Shimabukuro vs Keegan Smith Jun 17 $30 −$45 -149%
Abidjan 2: Michael Geerts vs Niels Visker Jun 17 $6 −$4 -72%
Savannah: Andres Andrade vs Nishesh Basavareddy Jun 17 $24 −$21 -88%
Saint-Malo: Moyuka Uchijima vs Ksenia Efremova Jun 17 $3 +$18 +646%
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $5 −$2 -36%
Suns vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Mauthausen: Jaime Faria vs Darwin Blanch Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Abidjan 2: Niels Visker vs Michael Mmoh Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 23¢ $8 9h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 69¢ $3 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 71¢ $4 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 74¢ $4 11h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 86¢ $17 11h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 99¢ $5 12h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 85¢ $4 12h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 54¢ $3 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 55¢ $3 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 52¢ $3 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 49¢ $2 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 49¢ $2 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 50¢ $2 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 50¢ $8 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 54¢ $3 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 53¢ $3 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 55¢ $3 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 58¢ $3 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 49¢ $2 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 50¢ $2 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 52¢ $3 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 46¢ $5 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 54¢ $3 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 54¢ $3 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 46¢ $5 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 56¢ $4 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 56¢ $1 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 44¢ $9 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 50¢ $0 13h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 50¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.10 · official $5.00 (match) · 3500 history records