Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

53 0x53ad…e49e sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$148 (-6%) realized −$38 · open −$110

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%4W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$294per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$24est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$300

7 days−$315

14 days−$825

30 days−$164

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+3.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	8	+14.7%	+3.8%	50%	50%	-15.4%
≤90d	8	+14.7%	+3.8%	50%	50%	-15.4%
all	8	+14.7%	+3.8%	50%	50%	-15.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.8%	50%	-15.4%
10%	-6.2%	50%	-23.5%
15%	-15.2%	50%	-30.9%
20%	-23.5%	50%	-37.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$288 vs −$329 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$38

Unrealized−$110

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses4 / 4

Est. fees paid−$24

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage21d

Avg bet$294

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$110	$0	−$110 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 19	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$205	−$200	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$1,004	−$1,000	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 10	$504	+$270	+54%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 08	$102	+$221	+216%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$200	+$331	+165%
Spurs vs. Thunder	Jun 02	$399	+$330	+83%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$113	1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	23¢	$205	42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	29¢	$15	4d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	95¢	$401	9d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	83¢	$603	9d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	86¢	$301	11d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Spurs	47¢	$203	11d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	31¢	$102	14d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	37¢	$200	16d
Spurs vs. Thunder	BUY Spurs	54¢	$399	20d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.23 (match) · 15 history records