Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x53ac…06d8 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate59%30W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% −$5
other 11% −$31
crypto 7% −$8
sports 1% −$3
world 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 1 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤90d 3 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -14.6%
all 51 -6.4% -15.3% 59% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 12% -10.2%
10% -23.4% 12% -18.8%
15% -30.8% 10% -26.6%
20% -37.6% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage590d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $606 −$37 -6%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February? Feb 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in February? Feb 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $3 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 30 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 22? Jan 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25? Jan 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 15? Jan 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18? Jan 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $13 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 14 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $13 $0 +0%
Tether insolvent in 2025? Jan 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on December 19? Dec 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.40 on December 19? Dec 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 10? Dec 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 23? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 18? Nov 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 18? Nov 18 $12 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - November 5, 3AM ET Nov 05 $5 +$5 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 2AM ET Nov 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 3AM ET Nov 05 $6 +$6 +96%
Solana Up or Down - November 5, 3AM ET Nov 05 $6 +$6 +96%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 30 $3,503 −$4 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 25 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $7 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $8 $0 -1%
Maple Leafs vs. Rangers Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Avalanche vs. Senators Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
No Data Reported in 2025? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 07 $10 $0 +1%
Panthers vs. Capitals Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Feb 05 $1 +$1 +117%
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? Dec 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night Dec 06 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Dec 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? Nov 24 $50 +$17 +33%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 17 $20 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $569 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $606 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 73d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 73d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 75d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 75d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $24 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $24 125d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February? SELL No 99¢ $26 125d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 125d
Will Solana reach $140 in February? SELL No 99¢ $23 125d
Will Solana reach $140 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 125d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL No 6¢ $1 127d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY No 6¢ $1 127d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL No 6¢ $1 127d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY No 6¢ $1 127d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 99¢ $14 152d
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $14 158d
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25? BUY No 99¢ $15 158d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $15 164d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 164d
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 167d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 167d
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? BUY No 99¢ $13 171d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 171d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $15 187d
Tether insolvent in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 187d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on December 19? BUY No 100¢ $14 194d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.40 on December 19? BUY No 100¢ $14 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records