Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x53ab…0675 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$312 (+4%) realized +$391 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate86%62W / 10L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$102
14 days−$29
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$275
sports 26% −$147
tech 16% +$91
crypto 1% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.9% -16.7% 86% 0% -29.8%
≤30d 11 -2.8% -12.1% 91% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 50 +2.7% -7.1% 94% 20% -5.6%
all 72 +3.0% -6.8% 86% 19% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 19% -6.0%
10% -15.7% 7% -15.0%
15% -23.9% 1% -23.2%
20% -31.3% 1% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$37 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$391
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses62 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage111d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? Down 93¢ 100¢ $94 $101 +$7 (+7%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? Up 95¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $128 −$127 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +7%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$2 +7%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $32 +$3 +9%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $27 +$2 +6%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $55 +$3 +6%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $127 +$12 +10%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 10 $264 +$16 +6%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 26? Jun 10 $277 +$17 +6%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 20? Jun 10 $287 +$22 +8%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 22? Jun 10 $354 +$18 +5%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $276 +$14 +5%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $275 +$21 +8%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $143 +$9 +6%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $152 +$14 +10%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 13? May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 8? May 08 $494 +$30 +6%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $209 +$22 +10%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $115 +$10 +9%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6? May 06 $187 −$187 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $281 +$14 +5%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 5? May 05 $296 +$39 +13%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 1? May 02 $401 +$25 +6%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $101 +$8 +8%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 29? Apr 30 $138 +$8 +6%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $107 +$14 +13%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $198 +$14 +7%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 28 $230 +$19 +8%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 28 $129 +$15 +12%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 28 $185 +$54 +29%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $257 +$27 +10%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 24? Apr 25 $200 +$12 +6%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $106 +$6 +6%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 22? Apr 23 $236 +$33 +14%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 22 $106 +$17 +16%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $234 +$57 +24%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 21 $127 +$10 +8%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 20 $108 +$8 +7%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 15 $51 +$6 +12%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 13 $44 +$3 +7%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 10 $32 +$2 +6%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 8? Apr 09 $25 +$6 +26%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 08 $36 +$2 +6%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on April 7? Apr 08 $54 +$3 +5%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 03 $34 +$2 +7%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 03 $54 +$4 +7%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 30? Mar 31 $55 +$6 +11%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on March 25? Mar 26 $56 +$5 +9%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $26 +$2 +10%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 20 $35 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 93¢ $94 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 95¢ $86 1h
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 89¢ $128 25h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 94¢ $50 2d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 93¢ $35 5d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 91¢ $32 5d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 94¢ $27 5d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 94¢ $55 6d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 91¢ $127 7d
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 94¢ $264 9d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 26? BUY Down 94¢ $277 22d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 22? BUY Down 95¢ $354 26d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 20? BUY Down 93¢ $287 28d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 15? BUY Down 95¢ $276 33d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 14? BUY Down 93¢ $275 34d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Down 94¢ $143 35d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 13? BUY Down 52¢ $10 36d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 12? BUY Up 91¢ $152 36d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 8? BUY Up 94¢ $494 40d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 7? BUY Down 90¢ $209 41d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 6? BUY Up 92¢ $115 42d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 6? BUY Down 93¢ $187 42d
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 5? BUY Up 88¢ $296 43d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 5? BUY Up 95¢ $281 43d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on May 1? BUY Up 94¢ $401 47d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 29? BUY Up 94¢ $138 49d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 29? BUY Down 92¢ $101 49d
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on April 28? BUY Up 92¢ $230 50d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on April 28? BUY Down 93¢ $198 50d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on April 28? BUY Down 88¢ $107 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.25 · official $101.25 (match) · 161 history records