trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Jun 12 | $62 | −$1 | -2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $43 | +$1 | +3% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | Jun 12 | $10 | +$2 | +17% |
| Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut | Jun 11 | $15 | −$13 | -92% |
| Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec | Jun 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | Jun 09 | $269 | +$69 | +26% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -35.6% | -41.7% | 43% | 29% | -0.5% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -35.6% | -41.7% | 43% | 29% | -0.5% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -35.6% | -41.7% | 43% | 29% | -0.5% |
| all | 7 | -35.6% | -41.7% | 43% | 29% | -0.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -41.7% | 29% | -0.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -47.3% | 14% | -10.0% |
| 15% | -52.4% | 0% | -18.7% |
| 20% | -57.1% | 0% | -26.7% |