Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53a6…d891 crypto 1547 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6,974 (-23%) realized −$6,974 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate68%1057W / 489L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day80.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$431
other 3% −$26
world 2% −$18
tech 1% −$17
economics 0% −$4
finance 0% −$1
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 362 -1.2% -10.6% 59% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 1546 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 26% -11.0%
≤90d 1546 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 26% -11.0%
all 1546 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 26% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 26% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 20% -19.5%
15% -28.7% 17% -27.3%
20% -35.7% 12% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$6,974
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses1057 / 489
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1546 / 1547
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day80.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1546 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $321 −$16 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $9 $0 -1%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 15-21? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 34m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? SELL No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL No 89¢ $4 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 97¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? SELL No 89¢ $4 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? SELL No 98¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY No 88¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY No 93¢ $5 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 87¢ $4 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 92¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL No 91¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? SELL No 96¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL No 93¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 90¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 92¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 95¢ $5 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $4 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY No 97¢ $5 7h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL No 96¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? SELL No 95¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 72¢ $4 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $4 8h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 95¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $5 8h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $5 9h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $1 9h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $2 10h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.73 · official $4.73 (match) · 3500 history records