Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x53a4…d573 sports 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 718d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$616 (+6%) realized +$623 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate87%98W / 15L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$242
7 days+$515
14 days+$515
30 days+$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$452
other 35% +$144
world 3% +$12
politics 2% +$1
tech 0% −$11
culture 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -9.9% -18.5% 84% 20% -4.3%
≤30d 96 -9.9% -18.5% 84% 20% -4.3%
≤90d 98 -9.6% -18.2% 85% 19% -4.4%
all 113 +8.9% -1.4% 87% 30% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 30% -3.7%
10% -10.9% 14% -12.9%
15% -19.5% 11% -21.3%
20% -27.4% 10% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.74 per $1 lost it wins $11.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

718d coverage
Net worth$1,127
Realized+$623
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses98 / 15
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 115
History coverage718d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Uzbekistan 96¢ 94¢ $593 $580 −$13 (-2%)
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals No 97¢ 98¢ $541 $547 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Bai vs Zidansek Jun 23 $54 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $54 +$2 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Boluda vs Gjorcheska Jun 23 $53 +$3 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $54 +$2 +4%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ assists Jun 23 $109 +$3 +3%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $1,007 +$57 +6%
Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals Jun 23 $160 +$8 +5%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $55 +$1 +2%
McDonald vs. Alves: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 22 $377 +$14 +4%
Gaston vs. Midon: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Skatov vs Barrena Jun 22 $47 +$3 +6%
Set 2 Winner: Kraus vs Kalinskaya Jun 22 $81 +$4 +5%
Comesana vs. Canas: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 22 $99 +$1 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? Jun 22 $110 +$15 +14%
Set 2 Winner: Hsu vs Sakellaridis Jun 22 $120 +$5 +4%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $53 $0 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Osaka vs Frech Jun 22 $84 +$3 +3%
Set 2 Winner: Napolitano vs Harris Jun 22 $24 +$1 +5%
Set 1 Winner: Napolitano vs Harris Jun 22 $94 +$6 +7%
Set 1 Winner: Squire vs Zheng Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals Jun 22 $24 +$1 +5%
Nicolás de la Cruz: 2+ goals Jun 22 $34 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $48 +$2 +4%
Haissem Hassan: 3+ shots on target Jun 22 $49 +$1 +3%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $58 +$2 +3%
Ibrahim Adel: 3+ goals Jun 22 $71 +$4 +5%
Ibrahim Adel: 4+ shots Jun 22 $905 +$36 +4%
Mehdi Taremi: 2+ goals Jun 21 $62 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $288 +$12 +4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) Jun 21 $25 +$1 +2%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$1 +2%
Paul Goldschmidt: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $437 +$13 +3%
Hao-Yu Lee: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $121 +$5 +4%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 21 $22 $0 +1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 21 $36 $0 +1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 21 $38 $0 +1%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Mikel Merino: 3+ goals Jun 21 $118 +$7 +6%
Víctor Muñoz: 2+ goals Jun 21 $48 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 96¢ $54 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $54 1h
Set 1 Winner: Bai vs Zidansek BUY Bai 97¢ $54 2h
Set 1 Winner: Boluda vs Gjorcheska BUY Gjorcheska 95¢ $53 4h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 96¢ $54 5h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $53 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $53 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $53 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $53 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $53 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $53 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,127.19 · official $1,125.96 (match) · 460 history records