Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53a1…b1b0
crypto · 52 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$191 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open −$90
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$335
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses25 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage1d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day117.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 89¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 79¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +33%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $309 +$90 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $333 −$25 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $155 −$25 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $336 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$14 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$27 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $77 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $77 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $231 −$107 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $127 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $152 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $307 +$135 +44%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $175 +$212 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $204 −$69 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$69 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $205 −$74 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $204 +$78 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $107 +$50 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $77 −$75 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $71 +$43 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $55 −$42 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$269
other 7% +$173
sports 2% −$91
world 2% +$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 9m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $29 16m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $102 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $102 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -8.1% -16.8% 53% 43% -11.2%
≤30d 47 -8.1% -16.8% 53% 43% -11.2%
≤90d 47 -8.1% -16.8% 53% 43% -11.2%
all 47 -8.1% -16.8% 53% 43% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover117.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 43% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 34% -19.7%
15% -32.0% 26% -27.4%
20% -38.7% 15% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.75 · official $334.75 (match) · 151 history records