Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x53a1…76b7 crypto 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,510 (-8%) realized −$1,495 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%58W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$3,531
sports 18% −$1,145
other 14% +$893
world 1% +$17
culture 1% +$234
finance 1% −$37
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +89.9% +71.9% 29% 29% -45.4%
≤30d 17 +89.9% +71.9% 29% 29% -45.4%
≤90d 37 +24.5% +12.6% 35% 27% -38.9%
all 144 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 34% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 34% -27.7%
10% -17.8% 28% -34.7%
15% -25.7% 23% -41.0%
20% -33.0% 16% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$87 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$685
Realized−$1,495
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses58 / 86
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions3
Markets (closed)144 / 147
History coverage122d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $416 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $342 −$325 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $417 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $421 −$400 -95%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $102 +$485 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $422 +$144 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $424 −$330 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $213 −$200 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,174 +$825 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $818 −$800 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $231 −$226 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 +$9 +9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $92 +$133 +144%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 07 $212 −$199 -94%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $576 −$363 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 07 $86 −$29 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 07 $291 −$239 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 07 $257 +$41 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 07 $150 −$47 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 07 $150 +$105 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 07 $249 +$25 +10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $420 −$11 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 05 $529 −$346 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 05 $100 −$93 -93%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $434 +$299 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 30 $265 +$163 +61%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Egypt end in a draw? Mar 27 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $200 +$16 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 26 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 22 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 22 $51 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 20 $38 +$14 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 19 $73 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 19 $65 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 19 $372 −$235 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 19 $300 +$122 +40%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $50 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 19 $715 −$316 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 19 $316 +$101 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 19 $273 +$252 +92%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 19 $100 −$37 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 19 $254 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 19 $203 −$20 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 19 $200 −$98 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $100 14m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 15m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $307 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $106 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $107 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 57m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $588 58m
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $102 59m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 17¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $392 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $685.16 · official $685.16 (match) · 458 history records