Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x539c…74a4
weather · 261 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$17 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses215 / 45
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage54d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 260 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$29
14 days+$36
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Yes 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $73 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $258 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $146 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $71 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 11 $187 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 11 $63 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 82°F or higher on June Jun 11 $118 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 10 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $186 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% +$28
sports 8% −$41
world 2% +$7
finance 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$5
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $73 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $7 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $57 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $57 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $31 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $6 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $10 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $57 18h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $73 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $83 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $83 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $83 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $83 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $58 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $7 22h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $73 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $73 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 1% -9.2%
≤30d 191 -12.3% -20.6% 85% 1% -10.1%
≤90d 260 -5.2% -14.2% 83% 9% -9.7%
all 260 -5.2% -14.2% 83% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 9% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 7% -18.3%
15% -29.9% 6% -26.2%
20% -36.8% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1361 history records