Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

53 0x539b…c64f other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$17 (+9%) realized +$17 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip

Net edge+15%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+14.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+26.7%	+14.6%	100%	50%	+10.5%
≤30d	2	+26.7%	+14.6%	100%	50%	+10.5%
≤90d	2	+26.7%	+14.6%	100%	50%	+10.5%
all	2	+26.7%	+14.6%	100%	50%	+10.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.6%	50%	+10.5%
10%	+3.6%	50%	-0.0%
15%	-6.4%	50%	-9.7%
20%	-15.5%	0%	-18.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$123

Realized+$17

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage6d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	96¢	96¢	$43	$43	+$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	No	93¢	92¢	$42	$41	−$0 (-1%)
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals	No	96¢	96¢	$39	$39	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu	Jun 27	$45	+$3	+6%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$29	+$14	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals	BUY No	96¢	$39	39m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?	BUY No	93¢	$42	1h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	96¢	$43	40h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	67¢	$29	2d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu	BUY Yes	95¢	$45	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.35 · official $123.35 (match) · 7 history records