Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5399…2b4f crypto 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-20%) realized −$10 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$2
crypto 42% −$10
other 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-62.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -58.0% -62.0% 22% 22% -55.3%
≤30d 18 -58.0% -62.0% 22% 22% -55.3%
≤90d 18 -58.0% -62.0% 22% 22% -55.3%
all 18 -58.0% -62.0% 22% 22% -55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -62.0% 22% -55.3%
10% ← realistic here -65.6% 17% -59.6%
15% -69.0% 17% -63.5%
20% -72.0% 17% -67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 46m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.85 · official $28.85 (match) · 34 history records