Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5395…4183
other · 41 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$1 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses24 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage77d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 6 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 +$9 +97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +19%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 29 $2 +$1 +54%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 29 $9 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Apr 24 $1 $0 +27%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $3 $0 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? Apr 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 13 $1 $0 +46%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 13 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026? Apr 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? Apr 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 11 $1 $0 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April? Apr 10 $2 $0 +16%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $2 +$1 +35%
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more? Apr 07 $4 $0 +6%
Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more? Apr 03 $6 $0 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $3 +$1 +20%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qua Mar 30 $2 +$1 +49%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 30 $3 +$1 +31%
Will the DHS shutdown last 44 days or more? Mar 30 $8 $0 +2%
LoL: LNG Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Mar 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 28 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$8
politics 22% +$3
sports 15% −$3
crypto 7% −$5
economics 6% $0
world 5% −$3
finance 4% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 14d
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group BUY Nongshim RedForce 78¢ $1 58d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 58d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY MOUZ 52¢ $1 58d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 58d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 58d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 59d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 59d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 61d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 97¢ $1 62d
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 62d
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 62d
US x Iran meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 62d
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 62d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 53¢ $2 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $110 in April? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.9% -32.9% 50% 33% -6.7%
≤30d 9 -8.9% -17.5% 67% 44% -4.2%
≤90d 35 -6.9% -15.8% 69% 46% -8.4%
all 35 -6.9% -15.8% 69% 46% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 46% -8.4%
10% -23.8% 34% -17.2%
15% -31.2% 20% -25.2%
20% -38.0% 11% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.64 · official $23.64 (match) · 84 history records