Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:29:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5394…9da0 world 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$49 (-24%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$24
world 37% −$1
other 7% −$14
finance 6% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +100.0% +81.0% 100% 100% +81.0%
≤30d 4 +1.4% -8.3% 75% 25% -41.9%
≤90d 9 -6.9% -15.7% 67% 44% -37.9%
all 13 -7.3% -16.1% 62% 46% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 46% -31.4%
10% -24.1% 38% -38.0%
15% -31.5% 38% -43.9%
20% -38.2% 38% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage134d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 15¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 83¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29? No 39¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2 Top Esports 33¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Yes 41¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Fnatic 52¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 +$1 +100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 03 $6 $0 +4%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-29? May 28 $14 −$14 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? May 13 $2 +$2 +63%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 13 $8 +$2 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Spurs vs. Heat Apr 17 $15 +$8 +52%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Mar 30 $15 −$15 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-13? Feb 16 $30 +$18 +59%
Hawks vs. Pacers Feb 07 $21 +$23 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.67 · official $1.67 (match) · 23 history records