Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x5393…966a other 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,180 (+3%) realized +$1,176 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate38%43W / 69L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$2,530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$118
14 days+$287
30 days+$811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$891
economics 0% −$10
world 0% $0
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.2% 78% 22% -8.1%
≤30d 48 +7.2% -3.0% 67% 25% -7.3%
≤90d 70 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 19% -7.3%
all 112 -15.9% -23.9% 38% 18% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 18% -7.4%
10% -31.2% 17% -16.3%
15% -37.8% 16% -24.4%
20% -43.9% 12% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$8 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$2,530
Realized+$1,176
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses43 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage171d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,500 $2,496 −$4 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 35¢ 72¢ $12 $25 +$13 (+105%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $62 −$52 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $2,604 +$65 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $16 +$6 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $2,502 +$29 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $2,002 +$29 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $502 +$33 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $15 +$7 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,002 +$34 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,014 −$7 -1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,001 +$25 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$17 +326%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $2,304 +$69 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,002 +$36 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,263 +$50 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,203 +$45 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,002 +$29 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16 +$12 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$20 +192%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2,055 +$56 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $31 −$7 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2,012 +$34 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $26 −$8 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $39 −$24 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,006 +$25 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $2,005 +$59 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 31 $16 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $1,908 +$125 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $1,902 +$27 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $24 +$46 +193%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $26 +$52 +201%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1,758 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $1,602 +$23 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cameroon win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 17h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $62 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $62 25h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,502 25h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $802 29h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 29h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $281 30h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 30h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $119 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 31h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,530.31 · official $2,530.31 (match) · 336 history records