Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5391…5d38 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$176 (+10%) realized +$176 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$114
sports 15% +$98
other 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -39.8% -45.6% 29% 29% +1.9%
≤30d 41 -39.8% -45.6% 29% 29% +1.9%
≤90d 41 -39.8% -45.6% 29% 29% +1.9%
all 41 -39.8% -45.6% 29% 29% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 29% +1.9%
10% -50.8% 27% -7.9%
15% -55.5% 24% -16.8%
20% -59.9% 22% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$22 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$176
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $104 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 27 $103 +$80 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$138 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $103 +$82 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$40 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$101 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $109 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $102 −$48 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $27 +$86 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $102 +$131 +129%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$18 +17%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $173 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $67 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $205 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $195 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records