Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5391…97f2
other · 8 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$30 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage24d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 2 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$36
14 days−$15
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $15 +$14 +92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $20 +$21 +102%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% −$40
sports 39% +$16
crypto 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 86¢ $29 50m
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 31¢ $46 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $51 24d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.1% -42.2% 33% 33% -59.4%
≤30d 6 -19.3% -27.0% 33% 33% -25.9%
≤90d 6 -19.3% -27.0% 33% 33% -25.9%
all 6 -19.3% -27.0% 33% 33% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 33% -25.9%
10% -34.0% 33% -33.0%
15% -40.4% 33% -39.4%
20% -46.2% 33% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.90 · official $35.90 (match) · 24 history records