Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
53 0x5391…b34e other 40 markets active 8d ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 40L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$434per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$11
politics 35% −$9
tech 6% $0
finance 6% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 40 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$954) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage80d
Avg bet$434
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 13 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,181 −$2 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $1,141 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,209 −$1 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,276 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead May 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 20 $945 $0 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $954 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro May 18 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $932 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 18 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Apr 05 $103 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March? Mar 28 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $66 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 7d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $51 7d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $11 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 7d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $15 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $11 7d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $22 7d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $48 10d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,268 10d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,208 10d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $23 10d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $13 10d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $37 10d
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $896 10d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $25 10d
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $291 10d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $13 10d
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,189 10d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $76 11d
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO SELL No 100¢ $1,137 11d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $21 11d
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $1,119 11d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,179 11d
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $28 11d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,151 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records