Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x538f…28ba crypto 918 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$981 (-7%) realized −$981 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%338W / 676L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$779
7 days−$779
14 days−$779
30 days−$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$731
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -82.6% -84.2% 7% 7% -51.8%
≤30d 300 -27.1% -34.0% 26% 26% -29.4%
≤90d 1014 -9.7% -18.3% 33% 33% -17.2%
all 1014 -9.7% -18.3% 33% 33% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 33% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 33% -25.1%
15% -33.3% 33% -32.3%
20% -39.8% 33% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$981
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses338 / 676
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1014 / 918
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1014 Trades
no open positions (373 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -91%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$10 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$17 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$14 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$2 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$40 -202%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $6 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $17 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $55 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records