Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x538f…a6df other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-14%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$24
sports 44% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.5% -56.1% 0% 0% -33.0%
≤30d 5 -19.3% -27.0% 40% 40% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -19.3% -27.0% 40% 40% -9.6%
all 6 -32.8% -39.2% 33% 33% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 33% -25.2%
10% -45.0% 33% -32.3%
15% -50.3% 33% -38.9%
20% -55.2% 17% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$29 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage155d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance United States 83¢ 82¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Jun 30 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $73 +$44 +60%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jun 17 $50 +$24 +47%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Team to Advance BUY United States 83¢ $49 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? SELL Yes 71¢ $49 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 11h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $73 13d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 68¢ $50 141d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Rams 45¢ $50 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.35 · official $48.35 (match) · 10 history records