Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x538e…77f5 sports 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$360 (+14%) realized +$360 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%68W / 35L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$454
14 days+$469
30 days+$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +13.9% +3.0% 79% 57% +45.7%
≤30d 29 +10.8% +0.2% 76% 55% +24.9%
≤90d 103 -1.2% -10.6% 66% 52% +4.2%
all 103 -1.2% -10.6% 66% 52% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 52% +4.2%
10% -19.1% 39% -5.8%
15% -27.0% 23% -14.9%
20% -34.1% 14% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$360
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses68 / 35
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)103 / 103
History coverage77d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 103 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $33 +$7 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $50 +$2 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $48 +$4 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $51 +$19 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $329 +$449 +136%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $30 +$8 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $71 +$14 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $26 +$6 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $22 +$8 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $27 −$26 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $47 +$15 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $21 −$20 -94%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $76 −$2 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $35 +$17 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $24 +$6 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $96 +$13 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $22 +$15 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $7 +$3 +50%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $26 +$4 +16%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $15 +$5 +33%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 06 $8 −$1 -8%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) May 31 $41 +$1 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 27 $146 +$3 +2%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $23 −$7 -33%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $8 $0 +2%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $32 +$10 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $96 +$6 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $23 −$23 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $14 −$6 -40%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $45 +$10 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $17 +$9 +51%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 17 $11 +$9 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 16 $11 +$3 +28%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 14 $0 $0 +22%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $30 +$9 +31%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $19 +$6 +34%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $23 +$2 +11%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $28 +$6 +23%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $42 −$12 -28%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $14 −$14 -99%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $12 −$7 -59%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $29 +$11 +39%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $34 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Bia Mesquita 100¢ $40 21m
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 83¢ $2 27m
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 83¢ $15 27m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Mitch Raposo 100¢ $48 32m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 86¢ $10 47m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 82¢ $10 49m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 87¢ $10 49m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 79¢ $10 52m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 25¢ $4 53m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $10 59m
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre SELL Gaston Bolaños 39¢ $10 1h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 38¢ $10 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 100¢ $48 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 90¢ $18 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 83¢ $10 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 64¢ $10 2h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr SELL Luana Santos 26¢ $5 2h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Luana Santos 52¢ $10 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre SELL Shane Collins 100¢ $70 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 97¢ $10 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 89¢ $5 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 78¢ $5 2h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $10 3h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 66¢ $5 11h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 83¢ $8 37h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 83¢ $8 38h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 65¢ $3 39h
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 65¢ $13 43h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 59¢ $1 3d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 59¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 447 history records