Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x538e…c195
sports · 523 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$53,892 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53,855 · open −$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$203
Realized−$53,855
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses322 / 200
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$605
Open positions1
Markets (closed)522 / 523
History coverage544d
Avg bet$1,189
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 1 History 522 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$337
7 days−$893
14 days−$1,041
30 days−$1,091
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 42¢ 36¢ $240 $203 −$37 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Astralis 47¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BIG 69¢ 0¢ $269 $0 −$269 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Team Yandex 35¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 51¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 82¢ 0¢ $357 $0 −$357 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 57¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Top Esports 70¢ 0¢ $217 $0 −$217 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 50¢ 0¢ $288 $0 −$288 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Invictus Gaming 54¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs Kiwoom DRX 85¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 78¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Vitality 80¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BetBoom Team 76¢ 0¢ $113 $0 −$113 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Vitality 91¢ 0¢ $318 $0 −$318 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Anyones Legend 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Xtreme Gaming 72¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Legacy 79¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Red Force 66¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Vitality 89¢ 0¢ $207 $0 −$207 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner T1 49¢ 0¢ $71 $0 −$71 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Aurora 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Anyones Legend 71¢ 0¢ $127 $0 −$127 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Team WE 20¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B Xtreme Gaming 77¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $173 +$72 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $73 +$100 +137%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $359 −$357 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $292 +$66 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $208 −$207 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $192 +$16 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $146 +$45 +31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $72 −$71 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $37 −$36 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $83 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $73 +$12 +16%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $120 −$113 -94%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $84 +$36 +43%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $40 −$40 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $128 −$127 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $119 −$118 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 −$4 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $114 −$113 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $164 +$41 +25%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $271 −$269 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $172 +$100 +58%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $131 +$34 +26%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $98 +$40 +41%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $74 +$24 +32%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $13 −$13 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $8 +$6 +72%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie May 04 $87 −$87 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $319 −$318 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $263 +$56 +21%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $145 +$55 +38%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $138 +$54 +39%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $54 +$8 +16%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $101 +$44 +43%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $219 −$217 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia G Apr 20 $8 −$8 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $6 +$2 +29%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 18 $292 −$288 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 16 $146 −$144 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 15 $16 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $29 −$29 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $29 −$29 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $206 −$205 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Apr 10 $152 +$54 +36%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $115 +$37 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$47,798
other 2% −$5,736
crypto 0% −$377
economics 0% +$6
politics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 42¢ $244 10m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $244 12m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $173 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 63¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 63¢ $128 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 63¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 63¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 63¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 26¢ $73 2h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 82¢ $359 6h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $358 6h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $292 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 89¢ $208 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $208 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 92¢ $192 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $192 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 75¢ $146 23h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $72 28h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 51¢ $37 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 42¢ $83 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 82¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL TYLOO 2¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 34¢ $120 4d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 100¢ $120 4d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 69¢ $84 4d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 99¢ $84 4d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 85¢ $73 4d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY Astralis 47¢ $40 5d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 34¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -40.8% -46.4% 42% 37% -44.8%
≤30d 30 -34.0% -40.3% 47% 43% -38.8%
≤90d 144 -15.5% -23.5% 62% 55% -15.4%
all 522 -11.7% -20.1% 62% 54% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 54% -17.4%
10% -27.8% 41% -25.3%
15% -34.8% 28% -32.5%
20% -41.2% 17% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.99 · official $171.54 · 1932 history records