Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:06:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5388…6846
other · 60 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$559 -43%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$557 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized−$557
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses10 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)53 / 60
History coverage141d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%
Chart Positions 7 History 53 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 1¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 2¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? No 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be purple? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 23? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? 100k 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 23? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will it Snow in Seattle this weekend (January 24 - 26)? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin 6% daily candle change in 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $49 −$49 -100%
Discord IPO before 2027? Jun 05 $0 +$1 +394%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 05 $9 +$45 +503%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Apr 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 25 $31 −$8 -25%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $257 −$256 -99%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 09 $8 −$2 -21%
Will Kraken run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $7 +$5 +67%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Feb 08 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Feb 08 $34 −$5 -14%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 08 $118 −$2 -2%
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Feb 08 $41 +$3 +7%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 08 $107 +$26 +24%
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 08 $2 $0 -0%
Will Hyundai run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 08 $5 +$32 +605%
Will State Farm run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Google run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin 6% daily candle change in 2026? Feb 06 $0 $0 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $47 −$7 -14%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Salesforce run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28? Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US strike Syria next? Feb 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $11 +$4 +37%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 19-25? Feb 04 $4 +$71 +1900%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be purple? Feb 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Feb 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jan 29 $29 −$29 -100%
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jan 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jan 25 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 25 $5 $0 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? Jan 25 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Jan 25 $23 −$1 -3%
US recession by end of 2026? Jan 25 $23 $0 +0%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $234 −$234 -100%
Will it Snow in Seattle this weekend (January 24 - 26)? Jan 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jan 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 24? Jan 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 23 Jan 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% −$317
sports 21% −$200
crypto 15% −$29
economics 4% −$2
finance 1% $0
world 0% −$6
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 6m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 18m
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 27m
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 32m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $6 59m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $10 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 1¢ $6 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 40¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 8d
Discord IPO before 2027? SELL No 38¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 8d
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $54 8d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 59d
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 5¢ $0 108d
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 5¢ $2 109d
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL No 5¢ $1 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 +82.8% +65.4% 33% 33% -27.9%
≤90d 7 +56.7% +41.8% 29% 29% -39.6%
all 53 +3.5% -6.3% 19% 15% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 15% -50.2%
10% -15.3% 13% -55.0%
15% -23.5% 11% -59.4%
20% -31.0% 9% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.10 · official $48.10 (match) · 245 history records