Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5385…bb25 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%2W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% $0
politics 20% +$1
other 15% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 7% −$1
culture 6% $0
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -15.4% -23.4% 0% 0% -23.4%
≤30d 8 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -1.9% -11.3% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -1.4% -10.8% 8% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 4% -9.4%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage284d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 86¢ 91¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $2 $0 -15%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Nov 28 $1 $0 -29%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $31 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $31 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $32 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 24h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $13 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $35 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $35 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $27 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $32 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $28 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $3 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $2 189d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $22 207d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? SELL Yes $0 207d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 90¢ $10 215d
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $10 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.82 · official $32.82 (match) · 145 history records