trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -15.4% | -23.4% | 0% | 0% | -23.4% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -1.9% | -11.3% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -1.9% | -11.3% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 24 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 8% | 4% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.8% | 4% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -19.3% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -27.1% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -34.3% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $30 | $30 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | No | 86¢ | 91¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 22 | $2 | $0 | -15% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 14 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 10 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Jan 31 | $10 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Dec 16 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? | Nov 28 | $1 | $0 | -29% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Nov 21 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | Nov 21 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Buccaneers vs. Rams | Nov 20 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 20 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 19 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Nov 19 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 15 | $30 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Sep 15 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Sep 14 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? | Sep 14 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 13 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 13 | $31 | $0 | -0% |