Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5384…8ff7
crypto · 738 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,049 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,047 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$44
Realized−$3,047
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses417 / 687
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1104 / 738
History coverage4d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day641.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,802
7 days−$3,047
14 days−$3,047
30 days−$3,047
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 72¢ 55¢ $36 $27 −$9 (-24%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 51¢ 46¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,321
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $18 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $18 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $16 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $19 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $19 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $11 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $16 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1104 -26.1% -33.1% 38% 33% -21.0%
≤30d 1104 -26.1% -33.1% 38% 33% -21.0%
≤90d 1104 -26.1% -33.1% 38% 33% -21.0%
all 1104 -26.1% -33.1% 38% 33% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover641.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.1% 33% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -39.5% 28% -28.6%
15% -45.3% 25% -35.5%
20% -50.7% 20% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.33 · official $43.75 (match) · 3500 history records