Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5384…7408
sports · 1254 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,215 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,244 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$391
Realized−$1,244
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses495 / 736
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1231 / 1254
History coverage178d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 35 History 1231 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$97
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 64¢ 77¢ $32 $38 +$6 (+20%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $33 +$11 (+48%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 36¢ 46¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 52¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 15¢ $5 $21 +$16 (+328%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+16%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-37%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 27¢ 24¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+27%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $6 $14 +$8 (+139%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 50¢ 68¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 58¢ 59¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 58¢ 21¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-64%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? No 27¢ 46¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 22¢ 18¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 19¢ 9¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-53%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+60%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $12 $7 −$6 (-47%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will gas hit (Low) $4.10 by May 31? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by May 31? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Comey smile in his mugshot? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $5 +$12 +234%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 28 $21 +$38 +181%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $5 +$4 +87%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May? May 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 16 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 16 $6 +$7 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 16 $1 +$2 +208%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $16 +$25 +152%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 03 $3 +$3 +95%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $10 +$15 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2AM ET May 03 $5 +$22 +417%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 03 $5 +$2 +40%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) May 03 $5 +$2 +44%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) May 03 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 03 $5 +$4 +79%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 02 $3 +$4 +129%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 02 $10 +$8 +76%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 02 $10 +$14 +140%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 02 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$303
sports 34% −$171
world 13% −$895
other 4% +$8
politics 2% +$119
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 54m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 55m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 58¢ $10 56m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 57m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 57m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 58m
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $20 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $25 26h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $20 26h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 22¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto SELL Yes 90¢ $17 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 24d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? SELL Yes 62¢ $10 25d
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 35¢ $10 26d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 28d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 61¢ $5 28d
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) BUY Cavaliers 36¢ $4 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 30d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 30d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 30d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 39¢ $16 31d
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $2 31d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $10 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 24 -29.7% -36.4% 29% 29% -31.5%
≤90d 493 -11.6% -20.0% 40% 38% -22.7%
all 1231 -10.0% -18.6% 40% 39% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 39% -17.0%
10% -26.4% 37% -25.0%
15% -33.5% 34% -32.2%
20% -40.0% 31% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.75 · official $390.76 (match) · 3500 history records