Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:50:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
53 0x5384…e3b3 crypto 1328 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,305 (+15%) realized +$3,310 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate83%1095W / 231L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$77
14 days−$38
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$2,443
other 2% +$42
sports 1% +$39
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -6.0% -15.0% 79% 36% -11.4%
≤30d 558 -0.3% -9.8% 82% 39% -8.1%
≤90d 1303 +1.5% -8.1% 83% 36% -6.2%
all 1326 +1.3% -8.3% 83% 36% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 36% -6.5%
10% -17.1% 20% -15.4%
15% -25.1% 13% -23.6%
20% -32.5% 9% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$3,310
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1095 / 231
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1326 / 1328
History coverage92d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? No 91¢ 94¢ $112 $115 +$3 (+3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 6¢ $10 $3 −$8 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 228 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$9 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 +$16 +15%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 +$29 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $114 +$31 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $74 +$8 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $112 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $103 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $13 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $16 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 35¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 11¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $16 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.73 · official $117.73 (match) · 2546 history records