Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
53 0x5383…1b66 crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate90%98W / 11L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$14
14 days+$26
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$48
world 1% −$6
tech 1% −$14
other 0% −$2
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.6% -3.5% 80% 10% -7.9%
≤30d 27 +2.7% -7.1% 89% 4% -8.7%
≤90d 65 -1.8% -11.1% 85% 2% -9.2%
all 109 -1.0% -10.4% 90% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 1% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses98 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)109 / 114
History coverage131d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) New Zealand 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $130 +$3 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $130 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $127 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $125 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $122 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $119 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $115 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $112 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $109 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $109 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $103 +$3 +3%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? May 25 $87 −$14 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $116 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $115 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $115 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $112 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $110 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $214 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? May 09 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election May 08 $81 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 5? May 05 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 1? May 01 $109 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 24? Apr 24 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $102 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $33 −$10 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 76¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $130 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $130 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $133 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $130 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $130 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $127 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $127 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $125 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $125 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $125 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $122 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $121 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $121 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $119 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $119 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 96¢ $115 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $115 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 97¢ $112 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $112 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 97¢ $109 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $109 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? SELL No 100¢ $109 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.73 · official $134.73 (match) · 227 history records