Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:47:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5382…65cb crypto 24 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-4%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day70.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +22.3% +10.7% 50% 50% -20.3%
≤30d 24 +22.3% +10.7% 50% 50% -20.3%
≤90d 24 +22.3% +10.7% 50% 50% -20.3%
all 24 +22.3% +10.7% 50% 50% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.7% 50% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here +0.1% 42% -27.9%
15% -9.6% 29% -34.9%
20% -18.4% 21% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$5 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +392%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$5 +488%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records