Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5380…9592 crypto 1102 markets active 1h ago coverage 669d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,032 (-5%) realized −$2,249 · open +$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%447W / 613L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$961now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$535
7 days+$498
14 days+$793
30 days+$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$685
sports 15% +$192
other 11% −$862
finance 1% −$82
economics 0% +$11
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 257 -0.1% -9.6% 52% 39% -1.7%
≤30d 425 +0.3% -9.3% 48% 39% -5.3%
≤90d 795 -7.8% -16.6% 42% 36% -12.5%
all 1060 -8.9% -17.6% 42% 36% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 36% -13.3%
10% -25.5% 33% -21.6%
15% -32.7% 31% -29.2%
20% -39.3% 29% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$32 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

669d coverage
Net worth$961
Realized−$2,249
Unrealized+$217
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses447 / 613
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1060 / 1102
History coverage669d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1060 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 86¢ 98¢ $200 $227 +$27 (+14%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 40¢ 100¢ $40 $100 +$60 (+150%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? No 79¢ 76¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Over 22¢ 88¢ $22 $88 +$66 (+298%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 57¢ 80¢ $57 $80 +$22 (+39%)
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $69 $64 −$6 (-8%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Over 10¢ 58¢ $10 $58 +$48 (+485%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 63¢ 100¢ $32 $50 +$18 (+59%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 40¢ $42 $40 −$2 (-6%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 81¢ 96¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 62¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 62¢ 48¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-22%)
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 82¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 28¢ $21 $11 −$10 (-48%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 38¢ 12¢ $11 $4 −$8 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$19 +92%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $32 +$68 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $41 +$39 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $48 +$52 +108%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $35 +$45 +127%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $30 +$120 +400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $29 +$31 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$29 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $92 +$31 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$12 +111%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $47 +$53 +113%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $60 +$40 +67%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $12 −$9 -74%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$19 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$11 -94%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $48 −$48 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$23 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $47 +$53 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$25 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $40 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $11 11h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $22 13h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 13h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $11 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $25 14h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 57¢ $57 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $6 14h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $32 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $23 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $961.15 · official $961.18 (match) · 2499 history records