Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:05:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x537d…e019 world 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 314d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate26%22W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$26
other 23% +$1
sports 22% +$2
politics 12% +$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.1% -10.5% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 35 -1.6% -11.0% 26% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 51 -1.4% -10.8% 31% 2% -9.8%
all 85 -0.9% -10.4% 26% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses22 / 63
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage314d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 79¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $75 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $28 +$1 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $91 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $74 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $83 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $76 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $164 +$4 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $148 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $76 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $73 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $69 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $75 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $44 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $74 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $74 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $81 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $74 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $122 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $74 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $135 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $6 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $35 −$3 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $9 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $55 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $31 −$7 -24%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $175 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $76 −$10 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $10 +$3 +29%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $102 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $488 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $102 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $27 −$8 -30%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $122 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $714 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $648 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $711 +$3 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $288 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $18 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $57 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $75 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $75 9h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 94¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $28 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $74 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $73 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $7 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $8 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $82 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $82 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $74 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $58 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $74 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $82 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $83 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $53 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $17 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 51¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $76 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $84 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $84 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.47 · official $73.94 (match) · 307 history records