Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x537c…1c5b
other · 21 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$76
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)4 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit19%
Chart Positions 17 History 4 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Yes 88¢ 91¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ? Yes 98¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? Yes 99¢ 76¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next PMQ? Yes 36¢ 57¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will Starmer say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during the next PMQ? Yes 99¢ 75¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next PMQ? Yes 99¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Starmer say "World Cup" during the next PMQ? Yes 98¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e Jun 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 76% −$1
politics 18% +$1
crypto 5% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 95¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 31h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY No 78¢ $1 31h
Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will Starmer say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Starmer say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Starmer say "World Cup" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2d
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 2d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 2d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 79¢ $5 3d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 3d
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 3d
Will Starmer say "Reform" during the next Prime Minister's Questions e BUY Yes 84¢ $3 3d
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe BUY Yes 99¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 75% -3.1%
≤30d 4 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 75% -3.1%
≤90d 4 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 75% -3.1%
all 4 +15.7% +4.6% 100% 75% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.6% 75% -3.1%
10% -5.4% 25% -12.4%
15% -14.5% 0% -20.8%
20% -22.9% 0% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.70 · official $75.61 (match) · 27 history records