Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x537c…c958 crypto 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-2%) realized −$50 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate57%90W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$174
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$70
crypto 15% −$63
other 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -13.6% -21.8% 55% 47% -19.7%
≤30d 158 -8.9% -17.6% 57% 49% -13.1%
≤90d 158 -8.9% -17.6% 57% 49% -13.1%
all 158 -8.9% -17.6% 57% 49% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 49% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 37% -21.4%
15% -32.7% 33% -29.0%
20% -39.3% 27% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses90 / 68
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage11d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 46¢ 46¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $50 −$10 -19%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $50 −$39 -76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $99 −$97 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $41 +$43 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $40 +$21 +52%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $40 +$5 +13%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $30 +$7 +24%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $61 −$35 -58%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $71 +$46 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Justina Gonzalez Daniele vs Julia Konishi Camargo Silva Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $51 +$26 +52%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $40 +$6 +16%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $55 +$16 +28%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $61 −$11 -18%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $35 +$30 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Jangjun Kim Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $15 −$10 -69%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 −$47 -94%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Taisei Ichikawa Jun 12 $40 +$7 +17%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $30 +$2 +6%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $20 +$10 +49%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $9 −$4 -44%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $31 +$33 +104%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $61 10m
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu SELL Qiu Yu Ye 58¢ $41 11m
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Qiu Yu Ye 70¢ $50 40m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 18¢ $12 45m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 74¢ $50 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $30 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 84¢ $50 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $99 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $83 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $51 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $61 5h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $41 6h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 90¢ $45 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $40 6h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 79¢ $40 8h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 99¢ $38 8h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 79¢ $30 9h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami SELL Jacopo Vasami 100¢ $36 9h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 83¢ $30 9h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 80¢ $20 11h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 84¢ $30 11h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 52¢ $30 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 97¢ $117 25h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 34¢ $10 26h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ $71 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $77 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $51 30h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 61¢ $30 31h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 99¢ $46 31h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 85¢ $40 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.35 · official $59.35 (match) · 331 history records