Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x537c…8b1a other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$131 (-29%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$33
sports 41% −$72
world 7% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +22.6% +10.9% 28% 28% -40.4%
≤30d 18 +22.6% +10.9% 28% 28% -40.4%
≤90d 18 +22.6% +10.9% 28% 28% -40.4%
all 18 +22.6% +10.9% 28% 28% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 28% -40.4%
10% +0.3% 28% -46.1%
15% -9.4% 28% -51.3%
20% -18.3% 28% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$22 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$30 +99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$22 -43%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 +$69 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +249%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $41 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $61 34h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 36h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $31 37h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 36¢ $29 37h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 46h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $51 47h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 50¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.53 · official $49.53 (match) · 25 history records