Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5379…3930 crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (982 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$146 (-1%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,125per market
Trades / day982.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (982 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 24% -10.0%
≤30d 25 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 24% -10.0%
≤90d 25 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 24% -10.0%
all 25 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 24% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover982.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 24% -10.0%
10% -24.2% 20% -18.6%
15% ← realistic here -31.6% 16% -26.5%
20% -38.3% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$1,637) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
39.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$561 vs −$384 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,125
Trades / day982.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 29 $1,637 +$309 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 29 $334 −$317 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $2,144 +$2,333 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $1,671 +$814 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 29 $2,608 −$1,071 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $1,294 −$204 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $2,200 −$658 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 29 $596 −$185 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $873 −$159 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $706 −$95 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $1,018 +$382 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 29 $950 +$227 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $147 −$52 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 29 $1,575 +$78 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $349 −$232 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $2,620 −$320 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $378 −$49 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 29 $198 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 29 $775 −$576 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $1,029 +$30 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $591 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $1,511 −$744 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $1,675 −$584 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $710 +$1,418 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 28 $543 −$507 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $74 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1005 history records