Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5376…ce3e world 154 markets active 13h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate56%87W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$19
14 days−$9
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$5
politics 22% −$4
crypto 10% −$7
other 9% −$9
tech 4% +$2
sports 3% −$1
finance 2% +$2
culture 1% +$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.2% -9.3% 62% 24% -12.0%
≤30d 94 -1.8% -11.1% 64% 23% -10.0%
≤90d 154 -1.9% -11.3% 56% 18% -10.2%
all 154 -1.9% -11.3% 56% 18% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 18% -10.2%
10% -19.8% 8% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 5% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses87 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage54d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $12 $0 -2%
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $60 −$2 -4%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $27 +$5 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $107 +$4 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$3 +27%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 15 $9 $0 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$11 -79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +145%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 13 $13 +$1 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -47%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $156 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $12 +$2 +18%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +9%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $19 $0 -2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9 $0 +4%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 10 $27 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $22 −$1 -4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 52¢ $0 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $8 12h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $12 12h
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $1 12h
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $2 12h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $9 12h
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $2 12h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $9 12h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $3 12h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $31 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $15 12h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 85¢ $32 12h
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $1 13h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $12 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 14h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $2 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 18h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $2 23h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $2 30h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $6 33h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $2 34h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $13 37h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $2 37h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 38h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 38h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $4 39h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 41h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 942 history records