Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5375…ee7d other 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%76W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$2
crypto 25% −$19
weather 18% +$1
tech 12% +$2
world 6% +$3
finance 1% $0
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 32 -8.6% -17.3% 91% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 69 -3.2% -12.4% 96% 1% -10.4%
all 80 -1.8% -11.2% 95% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 5% -10.2%
10% -19.7% 1% -18.8%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.7%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses76 / 4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)80 / 85
History coverage140d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 98¢ 94¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 93¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C or higher on June 10? Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 03 $50 $0 +1%
Will Seattle have more than 3 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 03 $50 $0 +1%
Pelicans vs. Bucks Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 18 $30 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 13? May 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 7? May 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 8? May 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 29 May 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 24? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 26? Apr 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 25 Apr 27 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 20 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 7d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 10d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $10 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 14d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $5 15d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $5 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 17d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 18d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? BUY No 97¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 20d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 93¢ $10 21d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $15 30d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 31d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.09 · official $68.09 (match) · 180 history records