Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
53 0x5370…4de5 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,878 (+60%) realized +$1,996 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +139% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +100% what you keep after slip
Net edge+100%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$1,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$21
sports 16% +$1,865
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+116.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +139.3% +116.5% 25% 25% +130.8%
≤30d 8 +139.3% +116.5% 25% 25% +130.8%
≤90d 8 +139.3% +116.5% 25% 25% +130.8%
all 8 +139.3% +116.5% 25% 25% +130.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +116.5% 25% +130.8%
10% +95.8% 25% +108.8%
15% +76.9% 25% +88.6%
20% +59.5% 25% +70.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +155% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +139% · $-wt +155% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,433 vs −$151 · ×9.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,482
Realized+$1,996
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions13
Markets (closed)8 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $183 −$17 (-8%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $200 $112 −$88 (-44%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $154 +$1,962 +1272%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 +$905 +442%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 34h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 44h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 44h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 44h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 44h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 44h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 44h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $103 44h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $175 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,110 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,481.98 · official $1,482.02 (match) · 32 history records