Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x536e…4fd5 sports 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$179 (+8%) realized +$174 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%44W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$141
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 47% -3.2%
≤30d 66 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 47% -3.2%
≤90d 66 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 47% -3.2%
all 66 +4.8% -5.2% 67% 47% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 47% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 45% -12.5%
15% -22.5% 42% -20.9%
20% -30.1% 42% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$26 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses44 / 22
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions8
Markets (closed)66 / 74
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 54¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Under 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 92¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 36¢ 38¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 65¢ 64¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Washington Nationals 50¢ 52¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 55¢ 56¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs GamerLegion 95¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $30 +$20 +67%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 25 $30 −$30 -98%
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (+1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$6 +27%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 25 $40 +$1 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $30 +$19 +62%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $20 +$2 +11%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $20 +$22 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 25 $30 +$21 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $20 +$21 +101%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $40 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $61 +$49 +80%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 25 $30 +$28 +93%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $40 +$2 +6%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $41 +$36 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $20 +$17 +83%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $20 +$19 +93%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $40 +$11 +27%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $30 +$32 +105%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $20 +$20 +97%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $20 +$15 +76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $40 +$24 +60%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $30 +$19 +62%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $30 +$28 +93%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $40 $0 +1%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $20 +$21 +101%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $20 +$19 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $20 +$19 +93%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 23 $40 +$4 +9%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $40 +$1 +2%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $41 −$40 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $40 +$26 +65%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 23 $30 −$30 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 65¢ $40 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $40 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $40 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $30 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Leolia Jeanjean BUY Katie Volynets 79¢ $30 3h
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International North America BUY GamerLegion 95¢ $20 3h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 52¢ $21 4h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 36¢ $38 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $20 4h
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Naomi Osaka 59¢ $30 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 50¢ $30 6h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 97¢ $40 15h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $40 15h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $41 16h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $40 16h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $40 16h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 51¢ $30 17h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 55¢ $40 17h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $20 18h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 52¢ $41 18h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $20 18h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $40 19h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ $20 19h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $30 19h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $20 19h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 19h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 47¢ $20 19h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $30 19h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.48 · official $271.48 (match) · 147 history records