Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5363…04aa crypto 457 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$833 (-7%) realized −$833 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%213W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$389
7 days+$389
14 days+$389
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$915
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +3.3% -6.6% 60% 54% +9.9%
≤30d 320 -2.1% -11.5% 48% 41% -8.8%
≤90d 331 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 40% -10.7%
all 457 -4.2% -13.3% 47% 41% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 41% -16.9%
10% -21.6% 35% -24.8%
15% -29.2% 29% -32.1%
20% -36.1% 23% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$833
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses213 / 244
Open positions0
Markets (closed)457 / 457
History coverage148d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 457 Trades
no open positions (147 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $90 +$42 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $87 +$52 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$6 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $86 +$106 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $194 +$35 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $193 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $127 +$32 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $92 +$46 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $127 −$19 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $123 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $77 +$17 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$20 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$25 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $92 −$21 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $70 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $71 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$13 +81%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 28 $68 −$66 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 28 $5 +$12 +225%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $132 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2058 history records