Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5361…fbfa crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-25%) realized −$86 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 18d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$26
other 43% −$55
politics 6% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 30 -20.3% -27.9% 33% 23% -43.2%
≤90d 30 -20.3% -27.9% 33% 23% -43.2%
all 30 -20.3% -27.9% 33% 23% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 23% -43.2%
10% -34.8% 20% -48.7%
15% -41.1% 17% -53.6%
20% -46.9% 17% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage18d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $86 $80 −$6 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +126%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 11 $68 −$48 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$15 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$16 +393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$16 +302%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $88 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $1 43h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $4 43h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $16 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $16 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $16 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.62 · official $79.62 (match) · 81 history records