Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x535f…a83b
crypto · 236 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$7,294 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,269 · open −$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$676
Realized−$7,269
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses95 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions8
Markets (closed)228 / 236
History coverage54d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 8 History 228 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$817
7 days+$228
14 days−$601
30 days−$2,696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $257 $254 −$3 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 44¢ $150 $142 −$8 (-5%)
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Yes 28¢ 26¢ $88 $82 −$6 (-7%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Paraguay leading at halftime? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $39 $34 −$5 (-14%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $317 $0 −$317 (-100%)
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Belgium? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 0¢ $478 $0 −$478 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $190 $0 −$190 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1,250 $0 −$1,250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Antoine Griezmann: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Belgium? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Belgium? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $95 −$5 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $55 −$5 -9%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $257 −$14 -5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 −$4 -8%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $40 +$218 +543%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $59 −$57 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $243 −$240 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $162 +$268 +165%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $103 +$210 +205%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $453 +$494 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $273 −$12 -5%
Exact Score: Ethiopia 1 - 1 Malawi? Jun 09 $97 +$428 +439%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $154 −$150 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $870 −$855 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $484 −$478 -99%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Belgium? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Belgium? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Belgium? Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 29 $308 −$96 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 29 $102 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 29 $103 +$78 +76%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 29 $323 −$317 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $1,272 −$1,250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 24 $257 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 24 $207 −$33 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 24 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 24 $203 +$54 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 10 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 10 $78 +$97 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 10 $164 +$138 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 10 $91 +$72 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $76 +$40 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 07 $256 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 07 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 07 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 07 $123 +$61 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $441 −$264 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 07 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 07 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 07 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 07 $61 +$24 +40%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $194 −$190 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 05 $112 −$109 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 05 $104 −$96 -92%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $112 −$89 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% −$3,930
other 24% −$2,388
sports 7% −$1,075
world 1% +$268
politics 1% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $90 58m
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $90 59m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $50 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $130 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $244 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $47 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $257 2h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 99¢ $258 2h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $40 6h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $48 6h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $59 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $243 6h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $95 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 13h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $131 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $162 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 52¢ $312 26h
Mexico leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $946 27h
Mexico leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $453 28h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 28h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 53¢ $261 3d
Exact Score: Ethiopia 1 - 1 Malawi? SELL Yes 100¢ $525 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $273 3d
Exact Score: Ethiopia 1 - 1 Malawi? BUY Yes 18¢ $97 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +62.0% +46.6% 33% 33% -2.5%
≤30d 30 -2.1% -11.4% 27% 27% -46.5%
≤90d 228 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 39% -29.6%
all 228 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 39% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 39% -29.6%
10% -30.2% 35% -36.4%
15% -36.9% 28% -42.5%
20% -43.1% 22% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $675.66 · official $675.66 (match) · 743 history records