Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
53 0x535e…777e other 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%15W / 54L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 68% −$14
other 13% −$24
politics 13% −$7
world 2% +$3
sports 1% +$103
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +12.2% +1.5% 14% 14% -6.1%
≤30d 19 +9.1% -1.3% 16% 11% -6.8%
≤90d 56 +13.8% +3.0% 20% 18% -7.9%
all 69 +11.2% +0.6% 22% 14% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 14% -9.2%
10% -9.0% 14% -17.9%
15% -17.8% 13% -25.9%
20% -25.9% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×5.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses15 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage607d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $26 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $8 +$6 +86%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $18 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $16 +$14 +90%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $168 $0 -0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $40 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $136 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $135 $0 -0%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $142 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $290 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $142 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $149 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $276 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $137 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $144 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $146 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $136 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $141 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $139 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $153 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $11 +$6 +60%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $12 +$9 +72%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $5 +$6 +124%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $12 +$12 +108%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 2h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 28h
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 29h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $8 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 8d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $97 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 10d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ $16 14d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 19d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.74 · official $136.74 (match) · 275 history records