Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x535a…126b sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$40 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%56W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$31
sports 32% +$50
world 9% −$17
politics 5% −$15
crypto 4% +$12
weather 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.1% -7.6% 75% 75% -8.6%
≤30d 12 +2.1% -7.6% 75% 75% -8.6%
≤90d 69 +2.2% -7.5% 59% 59% -7.7%
all 96 +1.7% -7.9% 58% 58% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 58% -8.5%
10% -16.8% 52% -17.3%
15% -24.8% 42% -25.2%
20% -32.2% 32% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses56 / 40
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 99
History coverage138d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 38¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-31%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 16¢ $40 $11 −$29 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $23 +$6 +27%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $131 +$22 +17%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $71 +$17 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$12 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $18 +$6 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $99 +$19 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $103 +$37 +36%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $72 +$31 +44%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $74 −$2 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $98 +$15 +16%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? Apr 14 $19 +$4 +22%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b Apr 14 $8 +$3 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$3 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 14 $10 −$2 -24%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 14 $39 −$16 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this e Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 14 $25 −$5 -21%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Apr 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 12? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $15 +$3 +22%
Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $9 +$6 +67%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $15 +$5 +34%
Anthony Black: Points O/U 9.5 Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 247.5 Apr 10 $10 +$10 +97%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $32 +$28 +86%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $10 +$4 +39%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards: O/U 251.5 Apr 08 $10 +$8 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Apr 07 $5 +$5 +109%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5 Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-2.5) Apr 06 $6 +$6 +101%
Panthers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5 Apr 06 $8 +$4 +54%
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5 Apr 06 $6 +$4 +73%
Devils vs. Canadiens Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Apr 06 $6 +$4 +73%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $4 −$4 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 Apr 05 $10 +$12 +124%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $20 +$9 +47%
Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 234.5 Apr 04 $10 +$8 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $40 1m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $23 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $131 17h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 95¢ $87 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $71 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 74¢ $18 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $99 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 73¢ $103 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $72 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $72 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $114 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $98 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $74 4d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? SELL No 87¢ $23 74d
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b SELL No 86¢ $11 74d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 47¢ $8 74d
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $7 74d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $8 74d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? SELL No 15¢ $5 74d
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 74d
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $10 75d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13? BUY No 64¢ $10 76d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 59¢ $10 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.44 · official $82.05 · 212 history records